Euro Area Inflation Expected at 3.8% in September as Energy Rate Reaches 18.8%, Eurostat Flash Estimate Says

Annual inflation in the euro area is expected to be 3.8 per cent in September 2026, up from 3.2 per cent in August, according to a flash estimate published on 2 October by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Energy Leads the Increase

Eurostat said energy is expected to have the highest annual rate of the main components in September, at 18.8 per cent compared with 14.3 per cent in August. Services were expected at 3.2 per cent (3.0 per cent in August), food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.4 per cent (1.1 per cent) and non-energy industrial goods at 1.1 per cent (1.2 per cent). Eurostat’s table shows a monthly rate of 0.6 per cent for the all-items index, against an annual rate of 2.2 per cent in September 2025. Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was estimated at 2.5 per cent, compared with 2.4 per cent in August. In the table, energy carries a weight of 90.3 parts per thousand in the index, against 468.2 for services.

Differences Between Member States

Eurostat’s country table, in which the September figures are marked as estimates, shows Lithuania with the highest annual rate at 6.1 per cent and Latvia with the lowest at 2.9 per cent. Among the larger economies, the table lists Germany at 3.3 per cent, France at 3.4 per cent, Italy at 4.1 per cent and Spain at 5.0 per cent. Bulgaria, which Eurostat notes has been part of the euro area since 1 January 2026, is shown at 5.6 per cent.

Eurostat noted that the flash estimate is issued at the end of each reference month, and that the full set of harmonised indices of consumer prices for September is scheduled for release on 16 October 2026.

Why It Matters

The figures suggest that the rise in the headline rate is concentrated in one component. Energy moved from 14.3 to 18.8 per cent in a month, while services and the measure excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose only modestly. The spread between Lithuania and Latvia also shows that households across the single currency area are experiencing quite different price pressures. As the estimate is preliminary, the full release due on 16 October will show whether this picture holds.