The Atlantic basin went through 21 September 2026 without a single storm strengthening into a hurricane, meteorologists reported, making 2026 the latest point in any hurricane season without a hurricane since 1914 and breaking a 112-year-old record. Six named storms had formed across the Atlantic by that point in the season, but none reached the 74 mph sustained wind threshold that defines a hurricane.
Why the Season Stalled
Forecasters attributed the unusually quiet stretch to a strengthening El Nino pattern in the Pacific, which altered wind patterns high above the Atlantic and increased wind shear, tearing apart storm systems before they could organise and intensify. Satellite imagery through the season’s traditional mid-September peak also showed periods of Saharan dust suppressing tropical development, drying the atmosphere and further limiting how much storms could strengthen.
A Record Only Narrowly Avoided Until Now
Before the modern satellite era, the previous latest date for a season’s first hurricane to form was 21 September 1941, a record now broken. The 1914 season remains one of only two Atlantic seasons on record, dating back to 1851, to pass through the entire June-to-November season without producing a single hurricane. NOAA’s seasonal outlook had forecast a 75% chance of below-normal activity for 2026, citing similar atmospheric conditions, alongside a 20% chance of a near-normal season and just a 5% chance of above-normal activity.
Why It Matters
A quiet start offers genuine relief to coastal communities across the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the US East Coast, but forecasters caution the official season runs through 30 November, and late September through October has historically produced significant storm activity near the Gulf Coast. A record-quiet stretch is not a guarantee the rest of the season will stay calm, particularly if El Nino’s influence on wind shear weakens in the coming weeks.
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