Brazil’s presidential election is days away, and the final round of published polling points to a tight contest. According to a Quaest survey reported on 1 October 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 39% support in the first round against 34% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a five-point gap. The vote takes place on 4 October.
What the Poll Found
Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and over in person between 24 and 27 September, according to the report on ColombiaOne. The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and O Globo, carries a margin of error of two percentage points, and was registered with the Superior Electoral Court. The survey was released on 28 September; compared with the previous Quaest poll of 21 September, Mr Lula rose from 37% to 39% and Mr Bolsonaro from 33% to 34%.
Other candidates trail well behind. Augusto Cury slipped from 6% to 4%, Ronaldo Caiado held at 4%, Renan Santos at 3% and Romeu Zema at 1%, the report said. The share of undecided voters fell from 8% to 5%, while those planning to cast a blank or spoiled ballot rose from 7% to 10%.
A Runoff Looks Close
If no candidate takes more than half of valid votes on 4 October, the top two go to a runoff on 25 October. In a head-to-head simulation Quaest found both men at 42%, a statistical tie within the margin of error. Polls are a snapshot of opinion rather than a forecast of the result.
Why It Matters
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a major voice among emerging powers, so the outcome will shape policy on trade, climate and the Amazon, and its relations with Washington and Beijing. The poll’s detail also matters: a rising share of blank and null votes and a small pool of undecided voters suggest the result may hinge on turnout and on how supporters of minor candidates behave if there is a second round. For readers following the contest, the main lesson from the final surveys is how narrow the margin remains.
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